Jun 23

Let me be upfront, I'm not a Xcode user, so I can't speak technically. I'm simply postulating, what would developers do if you could simply export your iPhone app made with Xcode to Android.

 

There's been a lot of gripes about Apples new developer license, section 3.3.1 and while it doesn't effect me, what I find interesting is the possibilities of how Apple could marginalize Android development.

 

First some background

Apple updated their developer license to "prohibit third-party authoring tools." Their argument, if third party tools became the dominant development platform, Apple would suffer. Since these tools would be slow to adopt new technologies and solutions offered in Apple's iPhones and iPads. And let's face it, they have some history with this. Not long ago (and perhaps still) developers prioritized Windows development, delaying their poorly ported Mac versions. Hello Adobe. Hello Microsoft. And often these applications weren't up to par with their PC counterparts nor did they incorporate the latest Apple technologies (software-wise). So from an outsider's perspective, I can see why Apple would try to prevent this scenario from unfolding again on the mobile platform with section 3.3.1:

But what if Apple decided to do the unthinkable, allow Android export from Xcode?

Let's peer into the future - maybe Android has picked up steam (not just in some mindshare as today - but it's actually a close second to Apple's iOS4 (or 5 or 6, hey it is the future). And let's suppose Xcode purists are getting a little nervous that they backed the wrong horse. I know, it's all unlikely, but we're fantasizing here. Why couldn't Apple simply then provide an export option to Xcode - so Apple Xcode developers could take their iPhone apps and easily port them to Android? Hmmm, that could be a tad disruptive, even in this late scenario?

 

Now let's return to the present....what if Apple did this now? Or what if some very bright developer created this via an Xcode "plug-in"? Sure, from what I can tell there's no Apple approved plug-in API - but programmers can be very clever. How disruptive would this be to the mobile app developer community? Apple could essentially do what its license agreement is attempting to prohibit. Apple's Xcode could become the de facto standard for Android development. How? Well just like Windows programmers favored Windows development then ported to the Mac, the currently installed base of iPhone developers would love to continue to embrace iOS4 development first, then export or port their apps to Android (albeit after the iPhone version and probably lacking the latest Android support). A developer coup de maitre by Apple?

Do I think this will happen? 

Let's be serious, no I don't think Apple will supply an Android export option to Xcode. But I can see them enabling a plug-in architecture to Xcode. It probably exists in some rudimentary way now - just undocumented - similar to other undocumented APIs. If Apple ever really starts to see Android as a serious threat - they could cut it off at the knees with this maneuver. It's not a "nuclear option" but it certainly would be troublesome for Google. Newer versions of Android would find lagging support in Xcode - and so app parity between iPhone and Android would be reduced. Apple's iOSx apps would always be more advanced compared to their Android cousins.

 

Perhaps my Android vs iPhone iOS4 thought experiment is unfounded. As I said before, I'm not an Xcode user or a programmer able to speak technically about either. I'm merely considering what options Apple has if Android gains traction. While there's a lot of buzz about Android now - the numbers aren't really there. And it appears to me to be the Linux of the mobile operating systems. The geeks love it....but the masses don't really care what powers their "phone or mobile device" - they just want it to work. And in such a scenario, when technical aspects don't matter, the purchase motivators are price and the coolness factor. Apple wins on both fronts. Oh, and there's always the "lock-in" factor too. When people have spent 1000s of dollars on apple apps, songs, TV shows, and movies - is it possible for them to even consider switching? And when Apple finally allows other cellular carriers to sell iPhones (and we can be rid of AT&T) – it's game over.