May 22

The history and future of portable computing – where will it end?

By William Levins

As we entered 2010 and rumors about Apple's mythical tablet abound, I started thinking about mobile computing - that is, laptops, iPads, and iPhones. Where will we be in another 10 years? The iPhones (and other smart phones) let you do so much today that only a year or two ago would have required a laptop - and with the emergence of Netbooks and Tablet computers - phones and laptops will eventually combine to some degree. Some might even argue that the iPhone is really just a super small laptop - today. Or that the iPad is a laptop without a keyboard.

But first, a look back through history.

To get an idea where we're going, it's always good to reflect on where we've come from...and how fast a journey it really is. I started to wonder, what was the first portable computer? Who created the first laptop?

The IBM 5100 Portable Computer (1975)

Based upon an earlier prototype-only design, the 5100 had 64kb of RAM, 100kb ROM, included a keyboard and integrated 5" CRT display, a tape drive, and weighed a whopping 55 pounds! It was the size of a small suitcase and could be transported in a separate case - hence making it portable. But hey, it did provide an external TV connector for use as an external monitor. I wonder how much a TV weighed in 1975? So if you were superman, you could easy carry around this 55lb computer, in its case, which probably wasn't light... and don't forget your RCA television too.

The Osborne I (1981)

Cited as the first truly commercially available portable computer, the Osborne I was created by Adam Osborne. It weighed 24 pounds, had a 5 inch display, 64kb of memory, a modem, and two 5 1/4 inch floppy drives. It retailed for $1,795 (but included $1,500 worth of software).

At 24 pounds it was definitely a stretch to call it portable, but compared to desk-bound computers - I suppose it was. 30 years ago, this bulky box was the start of mobile computing (for nerdy bodybuilders I suppose).

Epson HX-20, Tandy/RadioShack, and HP (1982)

Portable computers continued to evolve, and to lighten the load, many reduced the area dedicated to the display. Most incorporated only a small one or two line monochrome display area. Some, like the Epson HX-20 also included a simple dot matrix printer.

The Gavilan SC (1983)

The first portable marketed as a "laptop", the Gavilan SC also included a 300 baud modem. It ran MS-DOS and incorporated a basic graphical user interface stored in ROM. It weighed 9lbs (without the separate add-on dot matrix printer) and used a clamshell style design.

Macintosh Portable (1989)

Weighing in at 15.8lbs, the portable did offer a true clamshell design, an active matrix LCD display, and offered 1 megabyte of RAM, upgradable to 5 MB. It ran Apple's 6.0.4 operating system and ran on Motorola's 68000 series chip. While 16 lbs is still a tad heavy, its larger screen and full keyboard allowed for more productivity.

PowerBook 100 Series (1991)

The striking feature of Apple's PowerBook was that the keyboard was shifted to the rear with a trackball located to the front along with the additional space for resting your palms. This innovative design has since become the standard for laptop keyboard positioning. The Apple PowerBook line continued to evolve over several years, including the PowerBook Duo up through the 165c which offered a color screen.

IBM ThinkPad (1992)

IBM entered the laptop field in the early 90's with three ThinkPad models. Running Microsoft Windows 3.1 and boasting 120 MB hard disk it's true claim to fame, was it's TFT color display, the industry's first. It also included the "pointing stick" in the keyboard, allowing it to be used without a mouse but with more than just the keyboard.

The first PDAs (personal digital assistants appear) (1993)

Apple created a brand new category of electronic device with it's development of the Newton Personal Digital Assistant. Ahead of their time, hardware and software deficiencies plagued the early devices along with the nascent marketplace. Then, troubled times forced Apple's iCEO Steve Jobs to discontinue the Newton in early 1998.

The departure of the Newton allowed the competition, which had already taken the lead in many aspects, to fill the void. Palm and Windows CE devices boasted more features and lower pricing and soon became ubiquitous among digerati and business professionals.

As the 1990's progressed, laptops became smaller, lighter, and more powerful. Until towards the end of the decade, they had started to rapidly replace desktops. During this time, laptops splintered into subnotebooks, full-featured PDAs, and finally smart phones.

Apple does it again.

Apple's iPhone set the cell phone industry on its head. And it continues to spawn would-be-competitors (e.g., Google's NexusOne) though none have slowed the iPhone's growth or come close to dethroning the leader. But that wasn't the end for Apple. In 2010 Apple created a new category of electronic device with its iPad tablet. Combining smartphone (iPhone) and Laptop (MacBook) features in a sleek, innovative product, along with a touch-based interface - Apple is pushing the envelope once again. The iPad's early reviews and sales have been amazing and again competitors are left scrambling to match Apple's vision.

But where will we be in ten years?

The iPad is cool and while many still struggle to find the perfect use for it, what it does demonstrate is that gestural computing is the future. It's more intuitive and natural. What the future holds is now emerging from research labs worldwide, and scanning the web provides some hints to where we're heading. In the near future, most mobile devices will offer video conferencing, as they incorporate user-facing cameras. And many will also include pin projectors so their contents can be projected for easier viewing.

But innovation will truly take off when battery size and capacity cease to be major hurdles for industrial designers. Today, wireless and soon over-the-air charging could explode similar to how wireless networking did in the past. Imagine not having to plug in your laptop, iPad, or iPhone - simply walking into your home or office will start the device charging - wirelessly. Faster chips and faster wireless networks will also eventually allow voice recognition to finally become a reality. Someday soon we will truly be able to ask questions to our mobile devices and they'll reply - and perhaps discuss the answer.

What's considered portable today will most likely be considered doorstops ten years from now. As flexible and transparent displays enter the mainstream, devices will become lighter and wearable. Early attempts to intertwine computers and clothing have failed to date because you need batteries - and no one wants to plug in their pants. But as wireless power takes hold and computers shrink and their hard-case form disappears - the options become limitless.

And of course, don't overlook the potential for the merging of humankind and computers. Scientists continually push the envelope. Even today, early steps towards powering devices with the body itself have leapt forward, and they'll continue to do so at an exponential rate. So in the future, perhaps we won't carry our portable devices, maybe we'll be the device. And then the question will be, not what's the next advance in computers, but what's the next advance in humans?

(1) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM_5100
(2) http://www.computerhistory.org/timeline/?year=1981
(3) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epson_HX-20
(4) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RadioShack
(5) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gavilan_SC
(6) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ThinkPad
(7) http://lowendmac.com/pb/macintosh-portable.html
(8) http://www.pencomputing.com/frames/newton_obituary.html