Nov 2

Various articles tout one mobile operating system over the other. Sales figures argue over who's leading in shipments, in the US, in the world. But cell phone shipments mask the real issue...which will become the leading platform.

 

Android, Android everywhere, but is it safe to drink?

Android is fine. I don't use it day to day, but from what I've seen, it's a decent mobile phone operating system, if not as refined as iOS on the iPhone. I'm sure others would argue the converse. However, even though Android phone sales are exploding since everyone is clamoring to use it (other than Apple), Android has some huge hurdles to overcome. First, it's definitely fragmented. Since it's licensed to phone manufacturers - they get to put their own spin on it...and there's not really a universal way to maintain compatibility across handset manufacturers...not that I see. It's also coming under fire legally. A spate of patent and copyright lawsuits are flying around and it's surely going to get worse before it gets better. And lastly, handset manufacturers are eventually going to realize, as PC manufacturers did...when you outsource your operating system, you're left battling over the price of your phone. The phone becomes a commodity, like PCs did. Sure, there's installment income derived from cell phone plans - but even this will eventually be driven lower. Handset manufacturers will also find it difficult to innovate, since they can't add things that aren't supported in Android...or they have to write "add-on" software - which incurs expense and sacrifices compatibility. Android certainly faces some challenges.

iPhone became iOS and it's poised to be big.

On the opposite side there sits the iPhone, moreover, iOS. Opponents will argue it's a closed system, and that hardware and software and the ecosystem are controlled by Apple. But that's not always horrible. It allows for rapid innovation, maintains compatibility (for the most part), and insures that your smart phone will work as expected. But moreover, there's some interesting developments on the horizon for iOS. iOS already runs iPods, iPhones, and iPads and soon, it'll be available on the desktop too. Yes, Apple is bringing iOS functionality to their next operating system. So now, a developer or a customer....who has chosen iOS...will be assured that an "app" they purchased will work on their phone, on their music device, on their tablet, and on their laptop and/or desktop. That's interesting. Oh, and of course, the same can be said for their media (licensed or not).

 

And this is where technology is heading. A mobile landscape that allows you to take your "work" or "life" with you. To have it always accessible. Sure, Android promises this too...but again, Android is the software, the hardware and the implementation is left up to multiple vendors. Apple can insure things work uniformly and as expected. And in fact they go to great lengths to do so - even if some people abhor the app store and it's approval process, it's good to know that someone is checking for compatibility, problems, and malware. Android is battling a malware problem, since various app stores don't filter content, anything can uploaded. It's the wild west of apps...and it can make for a harrowing experience.

 

And of course, the leadership in the market can't be ignored. Apple's iOS and the iPhone was available for almost two years before competitors began to appear that could compare to their unique touch interface. And as mentioned, some may have stepped over the legal line to achieve it, but that's for courts to decide. And then there's the early adopters, and the early lovers of the iPhone and related iOS devices, they've invested a lot of time and money in DRM'd content and/or applications. And since the iPhone and related devices are better than or comparable in price and performance to the late comers - there's little motivation for existing users to switch. (Aside from the loathsome performance of AT&T in the U.S.)

Apple excels at interface and industrial design

One thing that's undeniable, is that Apple again and again revolutionizes graphical user interfaces and pushes the envelope on industrial design. Often, as in music players and cell phones, they're late to the market. But when they get there...they reinvent what the market should be. Cell phone makers had years, decades, to innovate, but they failed. Then Apple showed them and the world how much better a mobile phone could be - what it should be. Until the iPhone came along....I don't think I ever heard anyone mutter "I love my mobile phone". But today iPhone users almost universally love their phones (even if they despise their carrier, but that's another story).

 

The same can be said for tablet computers. Many had tried, but until Apple showed the world what a tablet should be and do and how it should operate...no one could get it right. Now we wait for the copy cats to try to wedge Android into a tablet. Sure it'll be OK. Like I said, Android is a good second place. But again, if you're following, you're not leading. Just because your device looks and functions close to the iPad 1.0 doesn't mean it will stack up with iPad 2.0.

The question, will the iOS platform win versus the Android Platform?

Currently, iOS is the leader, though shipments of Android phones are way up, and tablets are beginning to seep into the market, it doesn't mean Android will replace iOS. More units shipping doesn't necessarily translate into more Android users. More likely, shipments are up because almost all competitor phones (other than Blackberry) are adopting Android - so naturally numbers will be up. But that doesn't mean they've got a lock on their customer. It just means the carrier they chose doesn't have the iPhone available so they chose a close second. When the iPhone is available on Verizon in the US I suspect that iPhone sales will take off again when a customer no longer needs to choose the non-iPhone option.

 

And what about the platform. Developers tend to make the platform choice along with customers. Developers want to create for the platform that has the most users (or the most profitable users) and customers want to have the most options. Today, that's still the iPhone. More apps, more developers. It's not likely to change overnight. And since Android is really only about a year old, app developers and customers haven't really gone through an upgrade cycle yet. Apple has mastered this three times thus far and will certainly be doing it for a fourth time soon (iPhone 5).

 

With Android, how will customers react when apps they purchased don't work on the new Android version - of if they can't upgrade to the new version on a phone they just purchase a year ago? How will developers react when they have to retool their apps or handle customer support? And who do you contact when there's a problem? Google? Verizon? HTC or the handset manufacturer? With iOS you contact Apple or visit one of the hundreds of Apple stores for help. A single source certainly is appealing during times of trouble.

 

I believe currently, Android is gaining popularity because it's better than the other iPhone impostors and it's been adopted by lots of cell phone manufacturers in an effort to slow defection to the iPhone. But as the iPhone becomes more widely available and as the iPhone morphs into the hub of your life and interacts seamlessly with your iPad tablet and Apple computer - well the easy and smart choice of the unified ecosystem will become apparent to users/customers that simply want to get things done and to have their technology just work...well they'll like Apple.

 

Sure, the geeks among us will always clamor for more openness and more choice, but the majority don't care about their phone unless it's not working. And if iOS lives up to it's potential and makes the technology in our lives disappear into the background...I think most people will appreciate that and support it with their wallets. Even if they only think they're buying an iPhone or iPad or Apple computer because they think they're "cool". What they'll eventually realize is they're making a choice. Simple over complex. Uniform over fragmented. iOS over Android.