Aug 12

Funny how fickle technology pundits and bloggers can be. Google+ was terrific and awesome and serious competition to Facebook when it launched as an invite only service. But then, a few weeks later, it's suddenly doomed to fail.

I was fortunate enough to be invited fairly early. And I'll admit, I dabbled with Google+ for a few days. But I haven't been back much. It's not because it's bad, or because it doesn't offer something I need to be social. Frankly, the only issue is, it doesn't have any of my friends on it. Especially early on when it was invite-only the pool of people to add to my circles was very, very small. Sure I "followed" a few people by adding them to my "follow circle". But really, most of them are already on Twitter or Facebook and I've already followed or liked them there. 

 

The potential for Google+ is extraordinary

I'm going to compare google+ vs facebook to an age old battle in my industry Quark vs InDesign. During the 90s Quark seemed insurmountable.  Everyone used it. Most got things done with it. But everyone hated it. But there wasn't any competition - or rather, the competition there was, wasn't very good. Then Adobe launched InDesign. But no one cared. Adobe upgraded to version 1.5 and no one cared. But then Adobe did something brilliant with version 2.0. First, they made it as good as or actually even better than Quark. But more importantly they bundled it with Photoshop and Illustrator. So if you wanted to buy or upgrade to the latest version - you invariably chose the "bundle" because it was the best value. Which means you automatically got InDesign. Now it took a few years, but eventually people started using InDesign, and eventually the wind shifted and Quark was the odd man out. The one trick pony that didn't really match the rich "ecosystem" that Adobe provided. I think Google+ is equivalent to InDesign 1.0.

 

Google+ is still young, it's expanding, and improving quickly. The first version lacked a bit of parity with other social platforms - but Google is quickly addressing these issues and baking in better ideas. I bet by the time Google+ hits "2.0" it'll offer unique features that Facebook will have to catch up to. But I predict the really big secret on Google's side is Google+ will seamlessly integrate with all of Google's other entities. It already does to a certain extent. But Google has so many products it'll take time for it to mesh them all together well - so they all just work together. And when it does...look out. Google+, Gmail, YouTube, GTalk, Android, Analytics, search, etc. - the list goes on and on. When goolge+ is baked into all of these options and it's user base grows....people will start to use it simply because it'll be every where.

The issue with google+ is too few users and limited access

Google's challenge is to make google+ as ubiquitous as Facebook and Facebook's Like. Facebook has a good lead and they're not resting on their laurels (like Quark did) but they're still at a disadvantage. Google has more resources, more entities, and is seen as more than just a social network. So Facebook has to become more than just Facebook (and it's trying) or it will fall victim to gradual user shift until it becomes a full scale defection. Google+ and Facebook only need to look at MySpace for inspiration or concern. MySpace was huge, they were first, but they got over taken by Facebook. Now you can sign-in to MySpace with Facebook...how far they've fallen. Facebook could become a victim too. And I think it's way to early to predict the demise of google+. After all, it takes time to gain adoption and acceptance. And so far, they've demonstrated they're achieving this at break neck speed.

 

So while I may not frequent google+ daily today - I don't visit Facebook every day either. Time will tell which one wins out. But if my personal experience is any indicator...I'm betting on google+ since it will be part of a larger collection of Google apps and options. While Facebook is a one trick pony...for now.